Using habitat suitability index and particle dispersion models for early detection of marine invaders.

Eradication and control of invasive species are often possible only if populations are detected when they are small and localized. To be efficient, detection surveys should be targeted at locations where there is the greatest risk of incursions. We examine the utility of habitat suitability index (HSI) and particle dispersion models for targeting sampling for marine pests. Habitat suitability index models are a simple way to identify suitable habitat when species distribution data are lacking. We compared the performance of HSI models with statistical models derived from independent data from New Zealand on the distribution of two nonindigenous bivalves: Theora lubrica and Musculista senhousia. Logistic regression models developed using the HSI scores as predictors of the presence/absence of Theora and Musculista explained 26.7% and 6.2% of the deviance in the data, respectively. Odds ratios for the HSI scores were greater than unity, indicating that they were genuine predictors of the presence/ absence of each species. The fit and predictive accuracy of each logistic model were improved when simulated patterns of dispersion from the nearest port were added as a predictor variable. Nevertheless, the combined model explained, at best, 46.5% of the deviance in the distribution of Theora and correctly predicted 56% of true presences and 50% of all cases. Omission errors were between 6% and 16%. Although statistical distribution models built directly from environmental predictors always outperformed the equivalent HSI models, the gain in model fit and accuracy was modest. High residual deviance in both types of model suggests that the distributions realized by Theora and Musculista in the field data were influenced by factors not explicitly modeled as explanatory variables and by error in the environmental data used to project suitable habitat for the species. Our results highlight the difficulty of accurately predicting the distribution of invasive marine species that exhibit low habitat occupancy and patchy distributions in time and space. Although the HSI and statistical models had utility as predictors of the likely distribution of nonindigenous marine species, the level of spatial accuracy achieved with them may be well below expectations for sensitive surveillance programs.     

Population dynamics of naturalised Manila clams <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ruditapes philippinarum</Emphasis> in British coastal waters

The Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum was introduced to Poole Harbour (lat 50°N) on the south coast of England in 1988 as a novel species for aquaculture. Contrary to expectations, this species naturalised. We report on individual growth patterns, recruitment, mortality and production within this population. On the intertidal mudflats the abundance of clams (>5 mm in length) varied seasonally between 18 and 56 individuals m⁻². There appear to be two recruitment events per year and there were 6 year classes in the population. A mid-summer decline in abundance was partly due to increased mortality but probably also a result of down-shore migration in response to high water temperatures and the development of anoxic conditions. A winter fishery removes c 75% of clams of fishable size (maximum shell length ≥40 mm) and c 20% of the annual production. The fishery depresses the maximum age and size attained by the clams but appears to be sustainable. Clam mortality due to factors other than fishing is highest in late-winter to early spring. The growth of the clams is intermediate in comparison with many published studies but remarkably good given their intertidal position. As on the coasts of the Adriatic Sea, where the clam is also non-native, the Manila clam has thrived in a shallow, eutrophic, lagoon-like system on the English coast. While the Poole Harbour population is currently Europe’s most northerly reported self-sustaining, naturalised population, given forecasts of increasing air and sea temperatures it might be expected that this species will eventually spread to more sites around the coasts of Northern Europe with associated economic and ecological consequences.     

Sexual selection and spring arrival times of red-necked and Wilson's phalaropes

Summary Seasonal changes in sex ratios during a 4-year study of red-necked phalaropes and a 3-year study of Wilson's phalaropes showed that females preceded males to breeding and/or courtship areas. The degree to which females preceded males may have been constrained by harsh weather, as the arrival of red-necked phalaropes was synchronous in 1983, when spring was unusually late. Neither sex defended territories; females competed vigorously for direct access to males. These findings show that selection for sexually asynchronous arrival need not act through territoriality. We interpret early female arrival as an adaptation for obtaining mates and coclude that sexual selection may be an important determinant of arrival times in mate defense social systems.     

Mating in bighorn sheep: frequent male reproduction via a high-risk “unconventional” tactic

Rocky Mountain bighorn rams use three distinct tactics in competition for mates. Two tactics (tending and blocking) feature defense and cooperative mating over a relatively prolonged consort period (up to 3 days). In the coursing tactic, subordinate rams fight dominants for temporary copulatory access (lasting seconds) to defended ewes. By combining population-wide genetic (microsatellite) exclusion of paternity, behavioral data and a model of bighorn reproductive competition, we estimated that coursing rams fathered 44% of 142 lambs assigned paternity in two natural populations. In one population, the probability of successful defense against coursing was lowest among rams that had many female consorts and held highest dominance rank. Even so, per capita annual male reproductive success was positively associated with social rank in both herds when measured in terms of fall conceptions. The proportion of coursing versus defending ram matings in each population (0.36 and 0.39) was similar to the corresponding fraction of lambs (0.43 and 0.47) fathered by coursing rams, suggesting that sperm competition approximated a fair lottery. Male traits important in gaining social status and obtaining cooperative consorts with ewes were different and potentially in conflict with those needed to defend against (and practise) coursing. Although the concussive weapons (horns) of rams are less dangerous than, for example, the piercing weapons of other bovids, injury from falls and horn blows during coursing brawls may cause death, handicap future mating competition or increase the risk of predation. Coursing is a rare example of an unconventional alternative mating tactic that is high-gain and high-risk. Received: 17 April 1996 / Accepted after revision: 15 March 1997     

Invasibility and Effects of Amur Honeysuckle in Southwestern Ohio Forests

The Asian exotic Amur honeysuckle ( Lonicera maackii [Rupr.] Herder) has become the dominant shrub in many forests in southwestern Ohio and in some other locations in the eastern United States. Our research focused on the invasibility of forest communities and relationships of L. maackii to the abundance of tree seedlings and herbs. We surveyed 93 forest stands near Oxford, Ohio (USA) to determine L. maackii cover, time since invasion, tree canopy cover, tree basal area, and a shade tolerance index. Stepwise multiple regression indicated that greater than one-half of the variation (r ² = 0.550) in Lonicera cover was correlated to five variables (in descending order of importance): tree canopy cover, distance from Oxford, shade tolerance index, tree basal area, and time since invasion. The results suggest that high light levels and proximity to an abundant seed source increase forest invasibility. Tree seedling density, species richness of seedlings, and herb cover were all inversely related to L. maackii cover. When Lonicera becomes abundant, future structure and composition of forests could be affected and local populations of herbs threatened.     

The costs of secondary sexual characters in the lekking great snipe (Gallinago media)

Summary Recent studies of the lekking great snipe (Gallinago media) have shown that male mating success increases with display rate and the amount of white on the tail. An obvious question then arises: what is setting the limits to male display rate and to the evolution of even whiter tails? In this study the costs of these two traits are considered. In the case of the white on the tail, almost no predation was observed during the display period. However, predation on the winter grounds and/or during migration cannot be ruled out. Males differed in the amount of white on the tail between years. It is suggested that increasing the amount of white is costly, though the reason for this is still unknown. In the case of display rate, it is shown that predation cannot be a considerable cost, again because of the near absence of predation on the leks. Instead, it is shown that male displays are energetically costly. The daily energy expenditure of displaying males was estimated to be on average 4 times the basal metabolic rate, which is close to the supposed maximum sustainable work load for birds. Furthermore, males lost on average 1.8 g per h (1.7% of the body mass) which is about 7.2 g (6.8%) during a night of display activity. Males do gain some weight during the day when no displays are performed but loose on average 9 g during an 11-day period in the early part of the breeding season. These results indicate that high energetic demands set the limits to male display performance and that males do not have to trade off the benefit of attracting females by their displays against a cost of attracting predators. Offprint requests to: J. Höglund     

Ecological impacts on the limpet Lottia gigantea populations: human pressure over a broad scale on island and mainland intertidal zones

Here long-term monitoring data taken at 33 sites in southern and central California coast and islands were used to evaluate the size structure of the large intertidal limpet, Lottia gigantea in restricted-access and in easily accessible intertidal zones that encompass a wide range of ecological variables. Using multi-dimensional analysis of population size structures, we found that sites on islands and strictly protected mainland sites have significantly larger median limpet sizes and a greater range of limpet sizes than unprotected mainland sites, while no pattern occurs in latitudinal or regional comparison of sites. Although intertidal predators such as oystercatchers were not the primary focus of the monitoring efforts, extensive natural history notes taken during sampling visits support the argument that predation was not a primary cause for the size structure differences. Finally, substratum differences were determined not to have biased the observation of larger limpets in protected sites. In regard to human interactions with limpets, we conclude that the degree of enforcement against poaching is the better predictor of limpet size structure than proximity to population centers or visitation to intertidal sites.     

Temporal variability in winter travel patterns of Yellowstone bison: the effects of road grooming.

The influence of winter recreation on wildlife in Yellowstone National Park (YNP), Wyoming and Montana, USA, is a controversial issue. In particular, the effects of road grooming, done to facilitate snowmobile and snowcoach travel, on bison (Bison bison) ecology are under debate. We collected data during winters, from 1997 to 2005, on bison road use, off-road travel, and activity budgets to quantify temporal trends in the amount of bison road and off-road travel and to identify the ecological factors affecting bison movements and use of the groomed road system in the Madison-Gibbon-Firehole (MGF) area of YNP. Using model comparison techniques, we found bison travel patterns to be influenced by multiple, interacting effects. Road travel was negatively correlated with road grooming, and we found no evidence that bison preferentially used groomed roads during winter. Snow water equivalent, bison density, and the springtime melt period were positively correlated with both bison road and off-road travel. From behavioral scans on 68,791 bison, we found that travel is only a small percentage (11%) of all bison activity, with foraging comprising 67% of observations. Also, only 7% of traveling bison and 30% of foraging bison were displacing snow, and we suggest foraging, rather than traveling, is likely the major energetic cost to bison in winter. Bison utilize their own trail network, connecting foraging areas using stream corridors, geothermal pathways, and self-groomed travel routes. Our results indicate that temporal patterns in bison road travel are a manifestation of general travel behavior and that groomed roads in the MGF do not appear to be a major factor influencing bison ecology and spatial redistribution. We suggest that the changes in bison spatial dynamics during the past three decades have likely been the result of the natural phenomenon of density-dependent range expansion, rather than having been caused by the anthropogenic influence of road grooming.     

Harvesting in an eight-species ecosystem

The theory for a general equilibrium ecosystem model that can include large number of interacting species is presented. Features include: (1) individual plants and animals are assumed to behave as if they are maximizing their net energy intake, (2) short- and long-run equilibriums are obtained, (3) species’ population adjustments depend on individual net energies. The theory is applied using simulations of an eight-species Alaskan marine ecosystem for which a “natural” equilibrium is calculated. Humans are introduced by adding a regulated open access fishery that harvests one of the species. Fishing impacts the fish population as well as the populations of other species, including Stellar sea lions, an endangered species. The sensitivity of fish and nonfish species populations to harvesting are calculated.